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“In democratic systems, progress often gets delayed because of differing opinions. The process of arguments and counter-arguments in democracies is endless. However, in countries like China the decision making is fast. China is an autocracy, but it operates with a level of meritocracy.
“It took President Xi Jinping 11 attempts to gain admission into the Chinese Communist Party–this by itself demonstrates that in their system, merit plays a role. This makes China innovative and competitive. Historically, democracies like the United States have led in innovation due to their open systems and universities, but even America is now beginning to question its democratic setup. The democratic West continues to dominate global GDP (65%) and military expenditure (75%) but China is trying to race ahead.”
This was stated by Lt. General Raj Shukla, PVSM, YSM, SM, Member, Union Public Service Commission, in conversation with Anoop Verma, Editor-News, ETGovernment. In the interview that follows Lt. General Shukla provides his insights on China’s great game to race ahead of the USA and dominate the world. He also talks about the steps that India must take to counter China.
Edited excerpts:
How can India counter China’s growing influence as a global economic and military power, and safeguard its own geopolitical and economic interests, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean region, where India’s strategic and economic priorities are concentrated?
India is indeed taking necessary steps to counter China’s growing power, but the challenge posed by China is immense. To understand how to approach this issue, it’s essential to grasp the long-term strategy of Chinese power, often described as the ‘100-year marathon.’ China has systematically built its strength over decades, starting with Mao Zedong’s outreach to the West, in the early 1970s.
China’s rise is not accidental—it is the result of strategic planning, persistence, and a focus on key areas like rare earth processing, technology, R&D and others. China’s leadership has a vision of creating a unipolar world dominated by their country. Their strategy involves patience, building capacities slowly, and hiding their power until they are ready to challenge the hegemon, which is the United States. In sectors like batteries and semiconductors, China has worked for years to master these technologies and it now dominates global markets.
In democracies governments change every five years, making it hard to maintain the kind of long-term focus that China has. But India must recognize the magnitude of Chinese power in areas like R&D, civil-military integration and emerging technologies like AI. China has built a formidable army and navy. It has made major technological and economic advancements. Even the Western nations are finding it difficult to compete with China.
India must take extraordinary measures, focusing on AI, space, defence technologies, and building capabilities in emerging sectors. It requires a speed and scale of response that matches China’s. While India cannot match China Yuan for Rupee, it can still achieve significant progress by recognizing the threat, reforming its structures like DRDO, and acting decisively.
The key takeaway is that India should acknowledge China’s growing dominance and respond with humility, resolve and a strategic mindset. It’s not about matching China’s power but using our own strengths and opportunities, like those in defence, space, and AI, to safeguard our geopolitical and economic interests.
Why is progress in a democracy so difficult, compared to a more closed society like China?
In democratic systems, progress often gets delayed because of differing opinions. The process of arguments and counter-arguments in democracies is endless. However, in countries like China the decision making is fast. China is an autocracy, but it operates with a level of meritocracy.
It took President Xi Jinping 11 attempts to gain admission into the Chinese Communist Party–this by itself demonstrates that in their system, merit plays a role. This makes China innovative and competitive. Historically, democracies like the United States have led in innovation due to their open systems and universities, but even America is now beginning to question its democratic setup. The democratic West continues to dominate global GDP (65%) and military expenditure (75%) but China is trying to race ahead.
China’s strategy—often referred to as a ‘100-Year Marathon’—shows their long-term approach. They initially concealed their ambitions but now they are boldly asserting themselves. Democracies, like America, are now realizing the need to wake up, and so must we, as the global power dynamics continue to shift.
How is China’s long-term vision, such as the 100-year marathon, influencing India’s approach to planning and reforms?
China has a long-term strategy, famously referred to as the 100-year marathon, which highlights their commitment to sustained progress. In response, the Modi government has introduced a 25-year vision plan, moving beyond the traditional 5-year plans. While this shift is a step in the right direction, the challenge remains that while we are reforming, China is racing ahead at a faster pace. For example, in the field of national security, India is undergoing massive reforms like the creation of the post of CDS, the plans to restructure the DRDO, and the greater emphasis on defence, but to compete with China in a realistic manner, we need to speed up our reforms and act on a much larger scale.
What are the challenges India faces in terms of defence manufacturing and reforms, especially compared to China?
India faces significant challenges in defence manufacturing, particularly when compared to China’s progress. While India is making reforms in defence, such as restructuring DRDO and improving military-civil collaboration, China has already mastered the fusion of civil and military sectors. This allows them to rapidly advance in technology and defence capabilities. To compete, India must accelerate its reforms, streamline processes, and place larger-scale orders more quickly. We must break down silos between private and government sectors, as well as civil and military structures, to foster better collaboration and innovation.
Why is long-term planning difficult in India, especially in defence and other key sectors?
Long-term planning in India faces resistance due to cultural, structural, and political factors. For example, while China boldly sets long-term goals like the 100-year marathon, India often struggles with even a 35-year vision, as intellectuals and policymakers tend to oppose such long-range planning and vision. India has inherited a siloed approach, where the civil, military, private, and government sectors operate separately, hindering collaboration. To overcome these issues, India needs to draw from its civilizational wisdom and embrace structural changes, cultural shifts, and a faster pace of reform.
How does India’s past economic decisions affect its current defence and economic challenges, especially in comparison to China?
India’s economic decisions in the past, such as focusing on growth before investing in defence, have had lasting consequences. In 1962, India’s per capita GDP was higher than China’s, but we chose to prioritize economic growth over defence spending. Meanwhile, China made difficult choices and invested heavily in defence and other sectors. As a result, China has overtaken India not just economically, but also in defence and technological advancements. Now, India faces the challenge of balancing economic growth with defence expenditure, requiring difficult decisions and intelligent policymaking to bridge the gap with China.
How can India secure its influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) given China’s growing presence, including military bases and port infrastructure in several countries in the region? Should India form alliances with countries like Australia to counter China’s influence?
India faces two major security challenges from China: one on the northern border and the other in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). China’s expanding naval presence, with a 400-ship Navy and bases in countries like Djibouti, and its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has increased its footprint in the IOR. To counter this, India must strengthen its missile defence systems, invest in drones, and build a strong Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) capability in the IOR, similar to China’s A2/AD in the first island chain. This will help India project power beyond the Malacca Strait and deter Chinese naval activity.
We have to expand the scope of our military diplomacy and enhance our presence in the region by providing aid and support to smaller countries to prevent them from aligning with China. Forming strategic alliances with countries like Australia and others can create a regional balance of power. We have to maintain vigilance on our western horizon, focusing on emerging threats from Pakistan, Taliban-controlled areas and even the actors like Turkey. We have to keep abreast of the changing geopolitics of not just Asia but all of Eurasia.
How does China’s military-industrial capacity compare with that of the USA?
China has made significant strides in its military-industrial complex. In 2014, China’s manufacturing value added was half of that of the United States. By last year, it had doubled. As a result, China’s military-industrial efficiency is now estimated to be five to six times more effective than that of the USA, according to American studies.
India’s defence manufacturing landscape has seen considerable shifts under the Modi government, particularly with a focus on Atmanirbharta in defence. The government recognizes the importance of innovation, with Prime Minister Modi emphasizing that defence must become a fulcrum of innovation, energy, and enterprise, especially involving the private sector and startups. Startups and private players are crucial for driving innovation, as evidenced by their impact in Ukraine and globally, with companies like SpaceX leading technological advancements.
India has initiated programs like IDEX, which have yielded excellent results. Startups like NewSpace, 114 AI, Pixel, and others are already making a mark globally. These startups are crucial in leveraging emerging technologies, such as AI, military autonomy, drones, and space tech, to enhance combat capabilities. If India rapidly embraces these technological innovations, it can counterbalance China’s advancements to some extent.
But India faces challenges in terms of cultural and structural transitions. In contrast to the West, where procedures can be waived for national security, India needs to adapt its industrial policies to support startups and private sector innovation, particularly in defence. The old frameworks, like the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP), are industrial-era constructs that must evolve to align with the digital and technological changes shaping modern combat.
