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“Wars and conflicts keep changing their form as rivals keep trying new strategies. The new attack on India’s national sovereignty might come in some other direction and it may have some other form. There is the old cliche that the enemy is always expected to do the unexpected. We have to be always prepared for all possibilities. We can never let our guard down–we have to be prepared on all fronts in all domains.”
This was stated by Lieutenant General Vinod G. Khandare, PVSM, AVSM, SM, Principal Advisor to Ministry of Defence, Government of India, in conversation with Anoop Verma, Editor-News, ETGovernment. In the interview that follows Lt. Gen. Khandare sheds light on India’s preparedness to deal with the threats from China and Pakistan.
Edited excerpts:
On the occasion of the 25th Kargil Vijay Diwas on 26th July, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Kargil to pay homage to the fallen soldiers. How do you see the significance of this day?
The nation celebrates Kargil Vijay Diwas to honor the heroes who sacrificed their lives for throwing out the Pakistani encroachers from the mountain tops of Northern Kargil district in Ladakh. Attacking the positions held by Pakistan’s insurgents at challenging heights, ranging from 15,000 to 18,000 feet, and restoring the status quo along the Line of Control was a great achievement of the Indian defense forces. There were several instances of hand-to-hand fighting in which India’s troops displayed admirable courage and skill. By celebrating the Kargil Vijay Diwas we are reminding the new generation of the sacrifices that have been made to safeguard national sovereignty. We are making the new generations realize that national sovereignty is supreme. The Kargil conflict happened in 1999. Since then what kind of strategies has the defence established adopted to prevent such incursions in the future?
India as a nation and its armed forces are always prepared. The threat perception evaluation that is regularly carried out and the armed forces are always in a state of readiness to act against any threat. However, when we talk of whether a Kargil can happen again, I would say that wars seldom repeat themselves. The enemy is not expected to launch the same kind of attack or incursion again. Wars and conflicts keep changing their form as rivals keep trying new strategies. The new attack on India’s national sovereignty might come in some other direction and it may have some other form. There is the old cliche that the enemy is always expected to do the unexpected. We have to be always prepared for all possibilities. We can never let our guard down–we have to be prepared on all fronts in all domains. After the abrogation of Article 370 in 2020, the Jammu and Kashmir region is now set to have its first elections. But miscreants are trying to create an atmosphere of fear in the religion. There have been a few incidents of violence in the Jammu area. What is the cause of this violence? Will this violence have an impact on the election process?
The Pakistani establishment does not want democracy to flourish in Kashmir. So they are trying to create problems. As far as we are concerned, we are a democratic country and in a democratic setup, in any part of the country, people can take out protests in case they do not agree with something. But they cannot indulge in acts of violence. After the abrogation of Article 370, Kashmir has been very peaceful. The Pakistani army and ISI don’t want to see a democratic system succeeding in Kashmir. That is why they are resorting to their old strategy of fomenting insurgency in Jammu, Kishwar, Doda and Khatua. They are targeting these areas because they believe that they can foment trouble here. But I don’t think that this kind of tactic will have any impact on the election process.
What can the government do to prevent such disturbances and acts of violence from happening?
The armed forces, the para military forces and the local police have to be on high alert. We know for certain that Pakistan will try to create trouble at the time of elections, so we have to be extra cautious.
The intelligence grid that was developed in Kashmir in the last 10 years, after the coming of the government led by Prime Minister Modi, is often credited for the peace in the Kashmir and Jammu regions. It seems that in the last two or three years, some gaps emerged in the intelligence grid. The miscreants took advantage of these gaps to create disturbances. Do you think that the intelligence grid needs to be further strengthened?
There could have been some tactical level gaps. This kind of ups and downs in the level of preparedness happens because the enemy never sticks to the same strategy. The enemy tries to come up with a better strategy to checkmate the law enforcement forces and create disturbances. You have an intelligence grid of a certain level, but the enemy suddenly makes a move into a new level. Intelligence capabilities and intelligence results are always very dynamic and volatile. But whenever such gaps are identified, the intelligence agencies in India swiftly take action to cover the gaps and counter the enemy. If there were some gaps in the intelligence grid, then you can rest assured that it has already been covered up.
Pakistan is being supported by China, and now that China is coming close to Russia, the geopolitics in Asia has become very complicated. How does India safeguard its national interests in this age of transforming geopolitical alliances?
Russia has been India’s trusted friend since independence. In most of the global crises, Russia has stood with India. At present, Russia has become close to China because of the Ukraine war, which is not necessarily a Ukraine war. It is a NATO war against Russia. With Russia’s total focus on the Ukraine war and its dependence on China for support, the geopolitical situation has indeed become very complicated. However, Russia also has strong economic times with us—Russia is generating a lot of revenue through oil and arms sales to India. As far as Pakistan and China are concerned, the two countries have always been close and in the future they are likely to come even closer. When General Bipin Rawat said that India is ready to fight a ‘two-and-a-half front war,’ he was referring to Pakistan, China and the internal conflicts. We are prepared to deal with all these contingencies.
Is the country prepared for a two-and-a-half front war?
The armed forces are always prepared for fighting wars on several fronts. We want democracy and peace but if war is waged on us, we have the strength to counter any number of adversaries. The internal situation is complicated due to the presence of sleeper cells which the adversaries can awake at any time.
Can India depend on Russia at a time when Russia is getting closer to China?
I believe that we can continue to rely on Russia. Russia will have to continue to support India because its economy is dependent on its exports to India. They are selling oil and military hardware to us. They earn a lot of revenue from us. India’s diplomacy does well in balancing our ties with Russia and the USA on one hand, and between Iran and Israel on the other. between Russia and USA, Israel and Iran.
Pakistan has been facing a severe economic crisis for several years. Can we expect the Pakistani political establishment to realize that they cannot afford to fuel insurgency in Kashmir at a time when their population is facing economic deprivation?
I don’t think that Pakistan will ever stop its insurgency campaign. The Pakistani politicians are in a weak position–it is the Pakistani military, the mullahs and the ISI that have full control of the country. The people are suffering on economic lines. But the army, mullahs and ISI in Pakistan are not suffering. They will continue to play the old game of insurgency through which they derive their political power.
