<p>The dangerous trend is that smaller and inherently unstable countries and non-state actors now have nuclear ambitions. </p>
The dangerous trend is that smaller and inherently unstable countries and non-state actors now have nuclear ambitions.

The buzz in all militaries is that the nature and character of war has changed. However, the ‘Clausewitzan’ dictum that war is politics by other means still holds good. After all, war, like politics, remains a human endeavor.

As with all other human endeavors, war and politics remain rooted in ideological, religious, territorial and commercial aspirations of one group of people set off against the other. Hence there is really no change from that perspective.

What has changed is the tools, their application, methodology and rules of war. The battlefield of today is far different from that of yesteryears. It is in this larger context that wars as we knew them are over. Hence understanding today’s wars is to prepare for future wars lest one gets caught in fighting the last war which does not exist anymore.

Technology has birthed many tools of war which have been applied innovatively on the battlefield. It would not be wrong to say that disruptive technology is the new king of the modern-day battlefield. Resultantly many concepts of war as one understood them are undergoing drastic changes.

There has been a profusion of drones on the battlefield. Drones, enabled with a bevy of soft technologies like digital, VR, AI, cyber, communication, et al and hard technologies like propulsion and explosives have ushered in ‘front end integration of shooters and sensors’.

In doing so the Observe, Orient, Decide and Act (OODA) loop which was operated from the rear has shortened dramatically to effect real time precision engagements. This is a massive conceptual shift. The next step of this trend lies in autonomous intelligent systems which are already visible on the horizon.

Significantly this shift is characterised by tools that are based on matured dual use technologies. Resultantly mobile apps meant for governance, weather prediction or ride hailing apps have been repurposed for battlefield application.

This has brought in a new concept of real time intelligence collection, communication, firepower aggregation and delivery. These ‘small and cheap technologies’ have produced remarkable results in battle when regular systems have proven less resilient.

This trend will inevitably lead to networks and structures which are not only more affordable but will be force multiplied with the involvement of people power.

A major metamorphosis is taking place in air power. A new chapter of non-contact warfare commenced in 2019 when the ARAMCO oil fields were attacked by a swarm of drones and missiles across more than a 1000 km by penetrating sophisticated air defence systems.

From then onwards air power is no longer the preserve of the latest generation multirole fighters or air to air refuellers or other traditional systems. Airpower is now about the ability to project non-contact power through drones, rockets, missiles and hypersonics in addition to traditional tools. It is also about the ability to protect oneself from mass/ swarm attacks through robust air defence & EW systems.

Study how the Iranians are able to wield and project enormous power across West Asia despite having a woeful Air Force to understand this phenomenon.
A parallel trendline is the phenomenal growth of rockets and missiles. China and North Korea have coerced adversaries with their expanding missile capability and nuclear ambiguity. Iran proliferated rocket technology to its surrogate militias for power projection.

In turn, its surrogates (Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis) derive political power and project terror through their motley but sizable arsenal of rockets and missiles. At the other end of the spectrum, advances in propulsion technology, new materials, and 3D printing have led to a race teeming with hypersonic and cruise missiles and A2AD systems.

Amidst all this, the Ukraine war reminds us that there is still adequate scope for employment of conventional rocket systems. The non-contact warfare space is increasingly being dominated by rockets and missiles alongside drones and the area this space occupies is increasing.

Until now sea denial was a naval operation. However with Houthis choking international shipping and global trade through the Bab el Mandab and Ukrainians wreaking havoc on Russia’s Baltic, sea denial has acquired a new dimension. Forces without navies can also execute sea denial.

A combination of long range missiles with precision capability , space based surveillance and targeting will change the concept of sea denial and also impact the force structures of Navies. While the Chinese gloat that have the biggest navy on mother earth, they need to consider that its vulnerability has also increased manifold.

With time, military forces are increasingly reliant on space. The Ukraine war teaches us that every military big or small needs space based assets to wage wars – for communication, data transfer , weapon control, surveillance and more. The ubiquity of space in military matters is startling as we enter into an era of space based platforms and counter space assets for offensive and defensive operations. In the future, any country with a credible space program will be a serious military power.

History teaches us that all wars are based on a narrative and fought with information based on technologies available at that point of time. However, in the good old days, information was scarce, and the fog of war was thick. Good leaders were those who could see through this fog. These days, information flows from manifold sources transmitted through powerful communication systems with high bandwidths often lead to data overload.

AI backed by immense compute power gives us the ability to organize this data overload into meaningful information and generate powerful narratives. While managing data overload leads to optimization and concentration of resources in battle, narratives enable countries to wage cognitive wars. The tools, application and methodology of these sunrise technologies is setting up a new rule of war – there is no rule in war! The fog of war has thinned and clairvoyance in battle has increased.

These new disruptive technologies should have led to swift, short, and surgical wars with minimum violence. Fully equipped, technologically enabled and well-prepared armed forces should have led to clear political outcomes and enabled peace and reconciliation between warring parties. However, the opposite has been true. Wars have become extended and violent. Collateral damage is the norm despite precision weaponry.

That is because ideologically driven societies use violence and destruction to achieve their irrational goals. These ideological drivers of war have led to new contours of conflict. These drivers could be ethnic, racial, religious or communist ideology or a desire for global domination and control. What is also evident is that non state/ non uniform / irregular actors are increasingly being co opted into active combat in an organized manner. Resultantly there is a shift from the tangible to the intangible levers of war / power in a hybrid battlefield.

The time and space dimensions of conflict have stretched, often into years, and will do so in future as problems between societies and the humans who drive them remain intractable. In this context it is important to note that the very technologies which will define progress and well-being of nations or dominate battlefields will also enable hardening extreme / radical positions and hinder compromise to fan and extend conflicts.

It will be safe to say that simmering cauldrons of political and ideological discord with occasional volcanic bursts of violence will define the future. This is increasingly evident from America’s wars in Iraq or Afghanistan, the West Asian conflicts, the ongoing Russia – Ukraine war, the proxy war being waged by Pakistan against India and the oncoming war in the Western Pacific where China seems to be fully poised to enter an era of unavoidable conflict.

The haul in future wars will be long. Countries will have to prepare accordingly. War stamina will be an important ingredient in conflicts.

Another ominous trend is developing. Countries are contemplating the nuclear dimension of war with renewed interest. For instance, China has already upset the apple cart with an expansion and modernization program of its nuclear arsenal. This will set off a domino effect as other countries follow suit.

The dangerous trend is that smaller and inherently unstable countries and non-state actors now have nuclear ambitions. This is an uncontrollable phenomenon which militaries must increasingly contend with in future. Nuclear conflict by accident or design can not be ruled out.

If all this was not enough, climate change, water & energy scarcity and resource depletion will fuel societal, national and international discourses to generate the next cycle of conflicts. These conflicts will be even more intractable than the current ones.

The simple military mind which often sees war in black and white terms as a contest between opposing forces where victory goes to the side with better leadership, training, preparedness and weaponry must hereafter be prepared to prosecute war perpetually in the gray zone.

It requires constant rebalancing in military thinking as the future unfolds since war as we know it is over. Industries, militaries, societies and nations have to gear up to this.

(The author is a retired Lt General; Views are personal)

  • Published On Sep 11, 2024 at 07:51 AM IST

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